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中国 AI 为什么追得这么快？美媒找到一批关键人物_我的网站

一 |     8 月 25 日，据《华尔街日报》报道，中国 AI 模型近年来快速缩小与美国头部模型的差距，其背后并非短期突然出现的技术突破，而是清华大学等高校长期形成的人才网络，以及开源技术、人才回流和更高算力效率等因素共同推动的结果。报道认为，以智谱 AI 联合创始人唐杰、月之暗面创始人杨植麟以及 DeepSeek 创始人梁文锋等人为代表的一批研究者，构成了中国这一轮 AI 追赶的重要力量。    

    Tian Xuan Photo: Courtesy of Tian
In economic theory, "overcapacity" - for which no universally accepted definition exists - is inherently a recurring feature of the market economy's dynamic "balance - imbalance - rebalance" cycle. The Western narrative that equates China's sizable production capacity directly with "overcapacity" defies economic logic and rigor; in reality, it represents a politicization of trade and economic issues.
First, it confuses the concepts of "capacity scale" and "overcapacity." China's overall industrial capacity utilization remains within a reasonable range. Periodically lower utilization in traditional sectors reflects a normal adjustment as these industries advance toward high-end, intelligent, and green production. Ample capacity in certain emerging industries is precisely what meets surging global demand for high-end, smart, and green solutions. Therefore, equating scale with excess is typical equivocation.
Second, "overcapacity" itself is a dynamic feature of market economies, where no fixed balance persists indefinitely. Judging capacity based solely on static snapshots violates basic economic principles.
Third, it is erroneous to simplistically link trade surpluses or industrial subsidies to overcapacity, while ignoring the macro context of global specialization and cross-border savings-investment structures. It also disregards the reality that reasonable capacity utilization ranges differ across economies at varying stages of development. Imposing a single standard on China is neither scientific nor rigorous.
China's global competitiveness in green technology stems from sustained, large-scale investment in innovation, a comprehensive industrial and supply chain system, massive application scenarios, and intense market competition - not from alleged government subsidies. After decades of long-cycle R&D, Chinese industries have achieved breakthroughs in core technologies such as power batteries and photovoltaic modules.
During the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021-25), China's nationwide R&D spending grew at an average annual rate of 10 percent. Economies of scale have continuously diluted production costs. China's ultra-large domestic market and full-chain supporting ecosystem provide an optimal testing ground for new technologies - from pilot verification to mass deployment. With more than 200 million market entities driving fierce competition, enterprises are constantly compelled to cut costs, raise efficiency, and upgrade products, thereby forging dual advantages in price and performance that we see today.
There is no direct causation between subsidies and overcapacity. Industrial subsidies are a globally recognized practice, typically aimed at correcting market failures and advancing critical technologies. China's subsidies are granted on an impartial basis to all types of market entities, in full compliance with WTO rules, and have not triggered disorderly capacity expansion.
Currently, capacity utilization in China's green industries remains within a reasonable range. Support is primarily directed toward R&D, technological breakthroughs, and consumer-side incentives through market-based mechanisms - not toward fueling overcapacity. Crucially, China's high-quality capacity has reduced the global cost of green transition, representing an opportunity rather than a shock to world development.
Against the backdrop of global carbon neutrality goals, labeling China's new energy capacity as "overcapacity" is entirely untenable. According to the International Energy Agency, global data center electricity consumption will approach 1 trillion kWh by 2030, with 40 percent of incremental power needing to come from renewables. Demand for wind power, photovoltaics, power batteries, and related green energy solutions remains far from saturated - so claims of "overcapacity" are groundless.
China's capacity plays a central role in advancing the global energy transition. Over the past decade, the levelized cost of electricity from wind and solar globally has fallen by more than 60 percent and 80 percent respectively - improvements largely attributable to Chinese innovation and manufacturing, which have directly lowered the cost threshold for worldwide green transformation.
The US journal Science crowned the global renewable energy surge led by China among its Top 10 Breakthroughs of 2025. Leveraging its technological and scale advantages, China is well positioned to supply abundant, high-quality green energy equipment and solutions, meet fast-growing renewable demand from data centers, industrial production, and other sectors, and tangibly support countries in implementing the Paris Agreement. In short, China is a pivotal force driving the global low-carbon transition.
The so-called "China Shock 2.0" is fundamentally a protectionist narrative rooted in Cold War thinking - a politically motivated claim inconsistent with facts. The rapid development of China's modern industries is driven by innovation and sustained institutional reform, not by dumping allegedly excess capacity abroad. Rather than posing a shock, China's industrial progress offers a "China Opportunity 2.0." It delivers multiple dividends to global development - innovation dividends, market dividends, and growth dividends - while injecting stability and vitality into global industrial chains through an open and win-win approach.
China's high-quality green and high-tech exports have tangibly accelerated the global green transition and reduced production costs worldwide. Meanwhile, as the world's largest goods consumption market and the second-largest importer for 17 consecutive years, China provides enormous market opportunities for economies around the globe. Moreover, China's open-source collaboration and technology sharing in frontier fields such as artificial intelligence and the digital economy enable developing countries to bridge the digital divide at lower cost and share in the benefits of the technological revolution.
The facts demonstrate that China's emerging technologies and products represent a "China Opportunity 2.0" - driving global technological progress, accelerating the green transition, improving livelihoods across nations, and bolstering the industrialization of developing economies. This open and mutually beneficial cooperation stands as the true engine of global economic recovery and sustainable development. 
This article is compiled based on an interview with Tian Xuan, dean at the Guanghua School of Management and Boya Distinguished Professor of Finance of Peking University. [email protected]

。《华尔街日报》称，中美两国多名行业人士认为，中国最好的 AI 模型目前与美国最先进模型的能力差距已经缩小至数月。

二 | 今年 6 月，马斯克曾预测中国要到 2027 年第一季度才能追上 Anthropic 的顶级模型，唐杰随后回应称，“不会需要那么久”。报道将中国 AI 人才体系的形成追溯至 20 多年前。2005 年，图灵奖得主姚期智在清华大学创办“姚班”，培养计算机领域的顶尖人才。

三 | 与此同时，唐杰长期在清华从事数据挖掘和机器学习研究，其实验室后来成为中国 AI 人才的重要来源之一。杨植麟曾师从唐杰，在清华研究机器学习算法，随后赴卡内基梅隆大学攻读博士，回国后创办月之暗面。这种高校与创业公司的人员流动逐渐形成了一张 AI 人才网络。

四 | 2018 年，中国进一步放宽科研人员创业及科研成果商业化限制，次年唐杰从清华实验室孵化出后来发展为智谱 AI 的公司。

五 | 早在 OpenAI 于 2020 年发布 GPT-3 后，智谱就将开发同等级模型作为目标。不过，相比美国 AI 企业，中国公司长期面对资金和先进芯片不足的问题。杰富瑞测算，在相关时期内，中国科技公司的投入规模不到美国同行的五分之一。在这一背景下，提高算力利用效率成为中国 AI 企业追赶的重要路径。DeepSeek 是其中的代表。报道提到，DeepSeek 通过多头潜在注意力机制（MLA）降低模型运行中的内存消耗，并较早在中国采用混合专家模型（MoE），以减少对芯片算力的需求。这些技术成为 2025 年初“DeepSeek 冲击”的重要基础，当时其推出的低成本开源模型引发美国科技股震荡，也迫使中国同行重新审视技术路线。中国 AI 企业之间的技术交流也进一步加快了迭代速度。月之暗面后续模型采用了 DeepSeek 使用或验证过的 MoE 及 MLA 变体，而 DeepSeek 也采用了月之暗面优化过的训练技术。不同团队通过论文、开源模型和技术实践相互借鉴，形成了与封闭模型路线不同的技术扩散机制。与此同时，人才回流也成为另一条技术路径。腾讯招募了曾在 OpenAI 工作的两名清华毕业生，字节跳动则引入曾供职于谷歌的中国研究人员。

六 | 报道认为，美国 AI 公司的技术进展、海外人才回流以及中国本土研究网络，共同加快了中国 AI 公司的追赶速度。但算力仍是中国 AI 企业面临的主要制约。梁文锋今年 5 月表示，芯片而非人才，是中美 AI 公司之间最关键的差距。

七 | 阿里巴巴、智谱等头部实验室研究人员称，他们获得的高端芯片数量往往只有 OpenAI、谷歌同行的五分之一。

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Published on:10:10:05